According to Citi:
About 1% of North American consumer banking revenue has migrated to new digital business models, Citi estimates, but that will increase to about 10% by 2020 and 17% by 2023.
My theory is that there are three forces at work and one is little understood:
Millennials ready to switch
Growing capability of Neobanks
1&2 are well understood and much discussed. I think Branch closures is a underlooked force that will create the tipping point - a thesis discussed here: