What will trigger the tipping point for consumer adoption of Neobanks (aka Challenger Banks)?

According to Citi:

About 1% of North American consumer banking revenue has migrated to new digital business models, Citi estimates, but that will increase to about 10% by 2020 and 17% by 2023.

Source: http://fintechnews.sg/1891/studies/5-key-fintech-trends-data-citis-digital-disruption-report/

My theory is that there are three forces at work and one is little understood:

  1. Millennials ready to switch

  2. Growing capability of Neobanks

  3. Branch closures

1&2 are well understood and much discussed. I think Branch closures is a underlooked force that will create the tipping point - a thesis discussed here:

I think it will be when a company like Fidor gets a banking platform as a service offering that passes the muster, and small local banks + credit unions start the migration from their current consumer facing & maybe even their ERP systems.

This is probably a few years out, and may very well drop the cost of of opening a bank enough that the barrier to entry lowers enabling a flood of new entrants.

That said, in the book Crossing the Chasm I think the tipping point is around 12-15% of the market/users have adopted the new offering.

Interesting @KarmaCoverage and I agree, but not sure it has to take that long. I thought Fidor had this or was very close.