Technical Analyses of Ethereum & Other Thoughts

I’ve recently been pondering over traditional investing principles and how they apply to crpyto. A lot of people are quick to say “throw those out the window, they’re useless.” For the most part, I’d have to agree, but the exceptions are just too big to ignore. In addition to looking at what principles we can carry over with finance 2.0 we should also look at what new principles we can synthesize going forward. The following are a few questions I’ve complied to spark a discussion around this topic.

How can we plot it against its own specs such as hashrate and/or uncle rate and/or block per second? One study showed that there was a (network) correlation between daily transactions squared and the price per ether. (link:

How can we analyze herd mentalities? Are herds good or bad, and what about in finance 2.0? Do herds affect the success of a coin (i.e. Less adopters = failure)?

What is the science behind technology being replaced by new technology? What causes the migration from one tech to the next? How will Ethereum surpass Bitcoin in general popularity, not only market cap?

What’s the inflation of ethereum like? Is inflation only relative to its own domain and not others?

I’ve been thinking the above over for quite awhile now and would like to hear other people’s thoughts and to catalyze each others’ thinking.

I have been slowly trying to understand Ethereum since I first encountered it in summer 2014. Here is what I think I know:

  • an operating system for the decentralised Internet is dauntingly complex - some multiple of Windows or Linux. Would never have been funded by VC.

  • the DAO hack nearly killed it but it recovered.

  • Vitalik is a super smart benevolent dictator vs the no-leader Bitcoin governance. That is the mother of all Key Man risk. Be careful, please.

  • Gas/ETH is very different from Bitcoin. Think oil rather than gold. Yes you can trade in both, but that ends the similarity.

  • Ethereum has not been tested even at Bitcoin scale. So I think the Flippening meme is a bit overdone.

There is a great need for Crypto-analysts who will develop the new way of “valuing” crypto-assets.
At the Token summit, there was alot covered around this topic.
For now, the best is Chris Brunsike from arkInvest.